6. “错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”
原文
Investors as a life-long goal of long-term investment for the fluctuations of the stock market should also take the same attitude, do not ecstatic because the stock market rose, the stock market fell Rusangkaobi strange thing is that prices for food is not at all wrongknow very well every day will buy food, when food prices, they can be very happy, (trouble should be selling food), the same newspaper in Buffalo we expect to reduce printing costs, althoughthis represents must be accounted for as a news printing down the value of inventory adjustments, because we know very well, we have to buy these products.
The same principle also applies to Berkshire's investments, as long as I was still alive (after my death, Berkshire's board of directors are willing to accept my instructions through the seance I arranged, perhaps even more during the long-term), we will be at after year to buy a part of business enterprises - that is, stock, the price fell we would be more beneficial to the contrary might be interested in our disadvantage.
——摘自1987年巴菲特写给全体股东的年报
译文
以长线投资作为终身投资目标的投资者对于股市价格波动同样应该采取冷静的态度,不要因为股市大涨而欣喜若狂 ,股市大跌就垂头丧气。奇怪的是,投资者对于食品的价格一点都不会搞错,他们非常清楚自己一天要买多少食物。当食品价格下跌之时,他们变得非常兴奋(但垂头丧气的人是贩卖食品的人),同样的道理,在水牛城报纸上我们更期望印刷成本可以被压低,虽然这说明我们必须要将帐列的新闻印刷存货价值向下调整,因为我们非常清楚地知道,我们必须一直购买这些产品。
同样的道理也适用于对Berkshire的投资中,只要我的身体足够好,我们每年都会买下企业或者企业的股份,也因此企业收购价格下跌就对我们有利,相反可能会对我们不利。
投资解读
诚然,在股票市场中投资的时机是很重要的。然而,投资的最好时机是在投资过程中最难掌握的。因此,买进同类型的股票,有的人赚钱,有的人亏损。非常明显,亏损者,大多的情况是他对投资时机掌握不够成熟;而获利者,肯定是掌握准了适当的投资时机。
有许多人,总结出了许许多多的投资时机,比如,在大盘开始进入上升通道或重上上升通道时买入,大盘开始进入上升通道时建仓,中期调整时空仓或清仓了的话,调整完了再建仓或加仓。但是,没有一个人能够准确地判断出大盘什么时候进入上升通道,更没有人可以准确地预测出大盘的每一次调整是小调还是大调,是初期调整还是中期调整。
因此,大盘对个股的影响往往直接影响投资者的心理承受能力,而大盘的走势正是各种利益博弈的结果,如果投资者要和趋势作对,那么吃亏永远属于你。
巴菲特认为,个人投资者没有必要一定在大盘的杯形底部或在下降趋势时买入股票,因为对于个人投资者而言,他们没时间时时刻刻地看盘,即使是有时间,也不一定能够判断出哪一个点位是最佳的投资时机。如果你错误地判断出投资时机,给你造成的投资损失将难以估量,尤其是对那些资本并不雄厚的普通投资者来说,更是如此。
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